Sparked last year by subprime mortgage debt defaults, will likely last another two years as a wider group of consumers, including prime borrowers, feel the pinch from a tightening of credit.
According to Peter Acciavatti, a credit analyst and managing director at JP Morgan Securities Inc, home prices, which have fallen as much as 30 percent from their peak in 2006 may not hit bottom until 2010, with greater drops still in subprime mortgage debt markets.
Officials forecast more mortage defaults and said the highest default rates are coming from recent mortgages originating in the last few years. It is believed that more more mortgage defaults will come.
According to JP Morgan data, the mortgage default rate is now 0.75 percent, up from 0.34 percent at the start of the year. Acciavatti believes that high-yield corporate bond default rates may climb to 2.25 percent this year and jump to 6.5 percent next year, Acciavatti said in a separate interview, and that junk bond spreads will push past 800 basis points and may top 900 basis points as the crisis drags out.
Other analysts pointed to opportunities in the loan market for high-yield investors looking for value in other markets.
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Tim Ramsey